If Russia is planning to act in Eastern Europe, it may believe it is best to do so before 2029, when President Donald Trump leaves office.

Even as Russia’s unprovoked war in Ukraine is now well into its fifth year and shows no signs of stopping, there are new fears that the Kremlin may seek to test NATO’s resolve by launching a “limited incursion” into one of its western neighbors.

Russia borders the NATO member nations of Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Finland, and Norway. Finland is one of the two most recent entrants into the alliance; it joined in 2023 after a decades-long period of formal non-alignment.

The Wall Street Journal first broke the news of the Kremlin’s intentions on Thursday evening. The paper of record cited new US intelligence reports claiming that Russia had considered several scenarios for an escalation against NATO, ranging from a cyberattack on an alliance member to a small-scale land invasion.

“The assessments, described by US officials, come amid a shortfall in certain critical munitions that the military would need to confront Russia or China in a potential future war,” WSJ wrote.

Such an attack could come sometime between this fall and 2029, with the goal being to force Washington’s hand and even fracture the alliance. The timing is noteworthy. Russian President Vladimir Putin may believe that the response from the United States would be less vigorous during the current administration, given President Donald Trump’s long skepticism of US involvement in the war in Ukraine and NATO generally. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth has also made clear that US forces would not deploy to Ukraine when that conflict is finally settled, and that it was up to Europe to lead the embattled country’s post-war security.

Given that Trump will be out of office on January 20, 2029, and there is a chance the next administration could see the US return to the world stage and support its longtime allies in Europe under a Democrat or a traditional Republican, there might be a limited window for Putin’s Russia to drive a wedge between the United States and NATO.

The Baltic States Are Putin’s Most Likely Target

During a February 2024 campaign rally in South Carolina, then-former President Trump recalled a past conversation with an unnamed leader regarding defense spending. The story, which has long seemed to be more hyperbole than factual in nature, suggested that NATO wasn’t somehow paying its fair share.

Trump told the audience that he would not act to protect those countries that did not pay their fair share in NATO dues.

“No, I would not protect you. In fact, I would encourage them [Russia] to do whatever the hell they want. You gotta pay your bills,” Trump explained.

Although Trump never named the country in question, the list of suspects is not long. Of the aforementioned nations bordering Russia, by far the most vulnerable are the Baltic states—Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, which fell under Soviet control from 1940 until 1991. All three nations have tiny populations and are more geographically vulnerable to attack than their northern counterparts.War games have repeatedly shown that Russia could occupy any or all of the Baltic states in a few short months.

However, contrary to Trump’s complaints, those nations have all “paid.” The Baltic states and Poland are currently the highest spenders relative to economic size and share of the gross domestic product (GDP) within NATO; by this metric, they outspend even the United States. Greece, Sweden, and Norway also beat the USA in defense spending as a portion of GDP.

Russia has long smarted over the loss of the Baltic states after the collapse of the Soviet Union, and Putin has suggested the three small countries should rightfully belong within the Russian “sphere of influence,” akin to neighboring Belarus. Even before this week’s report, intelligence agencies had warned that Moscow might use hybrid operations or limited provocations to test NATO’s resolve.

In the (hypothetical) absence of the United States, the question is whether the governments in Berlin, Paris, and London would risk World War III to ensure the independence of the Baltics. However, as Germany is now in the process of deploying troops to Lithuania, and France and the UK have shown significant support for Ukraine, the question of whether Europe would stand by Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania seems clear.

Could Unrest in Europe Enable a US Move on Greenland?

Putin and senior Kremlin figures have contested the geopolitical orientation of former Soviet republics, viewing NATO’s expansion into the Baltics as a security threat to Russia. President Trump and his allies in Washington might support such an argument, especially if Moscow were to respond by saying it isn’t interested in what happens to Cuba or Venezuela, signaling a shift in the world order.

Russian diplomats have historically employed the South American nation as a geopolitical bargaining chip, hinting that Moscow would reduce its footprint in Latin America if America were to give Russia a free hand near its territory. 

Another concern is that Trump has also sought to control Greenland, a semi-autonomous territory of Denmark. Here, one might envision a troubling scenario; after a Russian move in Eastern Europe, the United States could use the incursion as an excuse to move in to “protect” Greenland, arguing that NATO is unable to protect it.

The question is still whether cooler heads in the Kremlin would risk what could all too easily become a world-ending war that began by testing NATO’s resolve. There is also the matter of whether US lawmakers—theoretically a co-equal branch of government—would allow the anti-European administration to casually throw its allies under the bus.

Of course, this scenario doesn’t include yet another wild card, namely whether China opts to “unify” Taiwan with the mainland while Russia launches its attack on the Baltics and perhaps Iran stirs up additional trouble in the Middle East. The ongoing Iran war has shown that the United States cannot be everywhere at once—and the more problems it is grappling with at one time, the less attention it can devote to any one of those problems.

About the Author: Peter Suciu

Peter Suciu has contributed to dozens of newspapers, magazines and websites over a 30-year career in journalism. He regularly writes about military hardware, firearms history, cybersecurity, politics, and international affairs. Peter is also a contributing writer for Forbes and Clearance Jobs. He is based in Michigan. You can follow him on Twitter: @PeterSuciu. You can email the author: Editor@nationalinterest.org.

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