Based on the historical pattern of the open-seat phenomenon where the incumbent's party loses seven of eight such races since World War II, current trends suggest a Democrat will win the 2028 presidential election unless specific economic and approval conditions are met.
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A seven-decade presidential election trend predicts Democrats will win in 2028
The Hill
November 13, 2026 at 12:00 PM
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Based on the historical pattern of the open-seat phenomenon where the incumbent's party loses seven of eight such races since World War II, current trends suggest a Democrat will win the 2028 presidential election unless specific economic and approval conditions are met.