Eurasian connectivity can no longer ignore Armenia’s potential opportunities.

A small, landlocked country, long dependent on Russia and embroiled in a painful, decades-long conflict with neighboring Azerbaijan, Armenia seems an unlikely candidate to become so consequential for the region’s prospects. Azerbaijan is more powerful, with a strategic alliance with Turkey, a larger economy, a growing Caspian port, and lucrative oil and gas exports. Georgia, Armenia’s other South Caucasian neighbor, has economically valuable Black Sea ports, serves as the default regional transit hub, and has long attracted greater attention and financial support from Western countries.

Previously the “odd man out” in the Caucasus, Armenia is becoming the unexpected linchpin for new opportunities to connect Central Asia and the Caucasus to Europe. Armenia now looks to be indispensable for aspirations to stabilize and transform the region: for ensuring the prospects for a lasting peace agreement with Azerbaijan; for catalyzing the building of major new trade, transit, energy, and technology linkages as part of the growing east-west Middle Corridor network; for maintaining regional autonomy and a pro-Western voice; and for supporting a foothold for the freedoms necessary for innovation.

First, the fate of the long-negotiated final peace deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan still hangs in the balance. Azerbaijan has insisted that Armenia change its constitution (to remove references to the country’s declaration of independence, which includes territorial claims unacceptable to Azerbaijan) before a final agreement. Still, Armenia’s government lacks the constitutional majority in parliament needed to make those changes. 

While it remains unclear whether Armenia can change its constitution or convince Azerbaijan to sign a peace agreement soon, the Pashinyan government currently offers the best chance of reaching such a deal. If Armenia cannot clinch a peace deal, the region could remain stuck in a protracted ceasefire without the broader peace agreement needed for long-term stability, increased trust, and cooperation. By extension, Armenia’s fledgling normalization of relations with Turkey would also stall or be jeopardized, further limiting regional cooperation and trade opportunities. 

Second, Armenia will need determination and resourcefulness to maintain momentum in successfully constructing the TRIPP (Trump International Route for Peace and Prosperity) segment of the Southern transit route. By partnering with the United States on TRIPP, Armenia has new resources and support to help make it a success. Because TRIPP is a high-profile link in building and diversifying the Middle Corridor’s trade, transit, and energy network, progress on that 43-kilometer (27-mile) rail segment is critical to its growth. Breaking ground on TRIPP will serve as a green light for investment in other transit and infrastructure projects across the Caucasus. Without progress on TRIPP, the Middle Corridor will still develop, but more slowly. 

Third, Armenia stands as the last avowed Western-leaning government in the Caucasus, and that posture preserves space for the region’s independent development course. Pashinyan has made his intentions clear about moving Armenia towards Europe, and without Armenia’s current government, the Caucasus would lose its only current aspirant for EU integration. Once the darling of Brussels and Washington, Georgia has opted to strengthen regional ties, including those with Russia and China, while also sharply criticizing the EU. 

Azerbaijan remains a strong and important US partner. Still, it has adopted a more independent, multi-vectored posture, aligning closely with Turkey while also looking eastward to strengthen links to Central Asia. Without Armenia’s Western-leaning government and perspective, new opportunities for regional dominance will grow not only for Russia, but for China, which has stepped up its diplomatic and investment overtures across the Caucasus. 

Fourth, Armenia is the Caucasus country most committed to individual freedoms, which are critical for the region’s longer-term development. Although Georgia long benefited from Western financial support, largely because of its past respect for freedom and individual rights, it has veered from that course. In contrast, since 2018, Armenia has fared far better in respecting freedom and democracy. Not coincidentally, Armenia’s free political environment has helped it grow into an IT and AI hub, attracting considerable investment from American tech firms. 

Facing a highly polarized and contentious political environment, Armenia is not perfect on democracy (Freedom House ranks it only as “Partly Free”). Notably, a set of investigations and detentions of opposition figures has raised questions about selective enforcement from international observers. If Armenia can maintain its overall democratic course despite political polarization, it will preserve not just its EU aspirations, but also the freedoms and rights that will spur innovation, investment, and economic dynamism in the region. 

Certainly, there are scenarios in which Armenia could be left on the sidelines. 

First, without a lasting peace deal and with delayed construction of TRIPP, other countries in the region may choose to build ‘around’ Armenia and leave it on the fringes of the Middle Corridor. 

Second, Armenia could succumb to economic pressure and revert to renewed dependency on Russia. Both scenarios would result in slower, less integrated growth and opportunity for the broader region.

Earlier this year, Pashinyan spoke about Armenia “moving from the periphery of the world to its center.” While that may sound like a self-serving talking point, it also holds a grain of truth. By working to conclude a lasting peace with Azerbaijan, to build new trade and transit routes spanning the Caucasus, to align with the United States and Europe, and to draw on the strength and innovation that come from respecting fundamental freedoms, Armenia is becoming an indispensable partner for plans to transform the crossroads between Europe and Asia. 

If Armenia succeeds in these goals, the entire region will benefit. These successes will be an indicator of the emergence of a new Caucasus—a peaceful, independent-minded, economically dynamic, and forward-looking region. The question is whether Armenia will receive the continued, robust support it needs from its Western partners to play this catalyzing and connective role.

About the Author: Alexander Sokolowski

Dr. Alexander Sokolowski is an advisory board member at the Caspian Policy Center. He is also a Visiting Scholar at the Elliott School’s Institute for European, Russian, and Eurasian Studies (IERES) at George Washington University. He served as deputy assistant administrator in USAID’s Bureau for Europe and Eurasia from 2018 to 2025. He spent more than two decades in the US government working on international political and economic development, with a focus on the South Caucasus and Eurasia.

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