China has announced a plan to bring the People’s Liberation Army Navy up to a strength of nine aircraft carriers in total by 2035.

The People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) could launch its fourth aircraft carrier before the end of 2027, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) said in its latest report on the Chinese armed forces. 

Beijing currently operates three conventionally-powered flattops capable of operating with fixed-wing aircraft. Those include the Liaoning, a refurbished aircraft cruiser that was originally laid down in Ukraine before the dissolution of the Soviet Union, and two domestically built aircraft carriers—the Shandong, based on the Liaoning’s design, and the Fujian, a new design that more closely resembles Western aircraft carriers, including a flat deck and electromagnetic catapults. 

In less than 20 years, China has gone from having no aircraft carriers to being the second largest operator of the warships and a force to be reckoned with around the globe.

China Can Build Its Warships Really Fast. Can America?

CSIS has monitored the progress of China’s carrier program for years.

“In less than two years, prefabricated hull components that first appeared in a Dalian dry dock in early 2025 have been assembled into a clearly recognizable hull—highlighting the speed and scale of China’s maritime industrial base,” the Washington-based think tank wrote.

As of this month, the Type 004 aircraft carrier is “at a roughly comparable stage of construction to its predecessor, the Fujian, in May 2021,” CSIS wrote. That carrier was launched just a year later.

That should be seen as especially alarming as the United States Navy is facing increasing delays with its Gerald R. Ford-class of nuclear-powered supercarriers. The lead vessel, USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN-78), experienced a 15-month delay caused by first-in-class technical problems, notably with its Advanced Arresting Gear (AAG) and Electromagnetic Aircraft Launch System (EMALS). The Ford’s keel was laid in 2009; it was originally scheduled to be completed in 2015, but these issues delayed its completion until 2017.

The second in the class, USS John F. Kennedy, has experienced similar delays. Its keel was laid in 2015, with an original delivery date of 2025, but that timeline was subsequently pushed back to 2027. (The Kennedy’s construction schedule was longer than the Ford’s because the Navy was intent on ensuring the ship was fully capable before its commissioning, including operating F-35 fifth-generation fighter jets. The Ford was launched without that capability, and still does not have it.)

The situation should improve as the class matures, even as the next-in-line carriers are also facing delays. The USS George H.W. Bush (CVN-77), the final carrier in the older Nimitz class, was completed near its foundational baseline schedule and well within cost expectations.

China’s Aircraft Carriers Might Not Be as Ready as Beijing Says

It may still be a few years before the PLAN has four operational carriers, however.

Even once the future Type 004 is launched, there will still be several years of construction remaining, including extensive fitting out. That will be followed by the testing of core systems and then a full course of sea trials.

So far China has avoided any of the delays that have plagued the US Navy’s most-advanced carriers, but that doesn’t mean such holdups are completely avoidable. The more complex the platform, the more “gremlins” are likely to find their way into the systems.

It is speculated that this carrier could be nuclear-powered, but also larger in size. Going big could introduce new (and potentially bigger) problems that need to be resolved.

China Is Hoping to Operate Nine Aircraft Carriers by 2035

Beijing appears committed to building six additional carriers by 2035, bringing its fleet size to nine carriers in total. However, that number includes the Liaoning, which was originally built by the Soviet Navy in the 1980s and is expected to be thoroughly obsolete by then. It is hard to imagine it will remain in service by the middle of the 2030s. (For comparison, Russia finally pulled the plug on its own problem-plagued carrier, the Admiral Kuznetsov, earlier this year after it spent millions of dollars on a refit that was never completed.)

As China reaches the point of having nine carriers, it will start to reach a point where the oldest warships will require upgrades and modernization.

In addition, having a fleet of nine flattops will require the PLAN to build the escorts, and it will need the sailors to man them—something that could be a problem for a country with a declining population, albeit the world’s second-largest.

“While aircraft carriers are the centerpiece of a blue-water navy, they do not operate in isolation. They are escorted by other vessels, typically including some combination of cruisers, destroyers, frigates, large replenishment ships, and sometimes nuclear-powered attack submarines,” CSIS wrote.

It is true that China has been on a building spree, and now has the largest navy in the world based on hull count. Even so, just as the aircraft carriers will need upgrades and eventual replacement, so too will the fleet of escort vessels. Time will also tell if China avoids the issues the US faces after it shuttered the shipyards that built and maintained the fleet in the 1990s.

The final consideration is that China lacks the large network of overseas naval bases. It currently has only two foreign military bases, one in Djibouti and one in Cambodia—a far cry from the US Navy’s deep presence around the globe. However, China has the infrastructure to build more of the bases, and will likely find other willing partners in Africa (and potentially Southeast Asia).

The danger for the US of Chinese naval expansion may be two-fold: first, that China is closing the gap in carrier strike groups, both in number and in capabilities; and second, that Washington may be retreating from the world stage under the cover of “hemispheric defense” called for in the recent national security and national defense strategies, giving an opening to the PLAN to expand its footprint. 

About the Author: Peter Suciu

Peter Suciu regularly writes about military hardware, firearms history, cybersecurity, politics, and international affairs. He has contributed to dozens of newspapers, magazines, and websites over a 30-year career in journalism, including Forbes and Clearance Jobs. He is based in Michigan. You can follow him on Twitter: @PeterSuciu. You can email the author at Editor@nationalinterest.org.

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