Though America’s most recent ceasefire proposal suggests Ukraine could join the European Union after the war, America has no control over EU accession and no power to implement the demand.

A component of the most recent United States peace proposal calls for offering Ukraine membership in the European Union (EU), along with an investment package to rebuild the country—but for Kyiv to abandon its bid to join NATO. The proposal further calls for a “demilitarized zone” in the Donbas, which includes the Ukrainian administrative regions (oblasts) of Donetsk and Luhansk.

The Economist first reported the details of the American plan, which has not yet been released to the public. Kyiv has received the general framework of the proposal, but it hasn’t been announced whether Ukraine has accepted the terms.

The latest peace proposal comes as NATO’s Assistant Secretary General for Political Affairs and Security Policy, Douglas Jones, and NATO’s Assistant Secretary General for Operations, Dr. Christian Buck, visited the Ukrainian capital today, where they met with Ukrainian officials and discussed the ongoing war effort as winter approaches.

President Donald Trump campaigned on ending the war on his first day in office. However, his administration has been unable to reach a peace deal over the past two years. Trump has increasingly blamed the failure to secure a deal on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who he has suggested is uninterested in a deal. (For his part, Zelenskyy has refused to surrender additional Ukrainian territory as a precondition for a ceasefire, which the Kremlin has repeatedly demanded.)

US envoy Steve Witkoff most recently met with Zelenskyy and other European leaders in Oslo this week, where the discussions included Ukraine’s security, territorial questions, and postwar rebuilding. A day later, Witkoff traveled to St. Petersburg, Russia, where he met with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

The Kremlin has stated that Putin would be ready “in principle” to resume talks in the middle of November. Still, it didn’t indicate why it would require three weeks or longer for the Russian leader to be ready to take part in any trilateral negotiations.

However, this also follows Russia’s increased attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure, and as Kyiv has acknowledged it is desperately low on US-made Patriot interceptors, the prime air defense platform used to counter Russia’s high-speed ballistic and cruise missiles.

The Ceasefire Deal Would Throw Russia an Economic Lifeline

The proposed peace deal could pave the way for Russia receiving significant commercial agreements with US companies, sanctions relief, and most notably restored political ties with Washington, according to the report from The Economist.

Moreover, Russian gas supplies to Europe could resume, including reviving the Nord Stream pipeline.

Russia currently controls roughly 70 percent to 80 percent of the Donetsk region and all of Luhansk. Putin has demanded that Ukraine surrender the remaining 20 to 30 percent of Donetsk, including key cities like Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. Ukraine has consistently rejected this demand.

Russia has also opposed Ukraine joining NATO. The Kremlin has insisted that the alliance’s expansion to Ukraine’s eastern border would be a direct threat to its own security, sovereignty, and geopolitical influence. Moscow has long viewed Ukraine as part of its historic sphere of influence and cultural-strategic orbit; a NATO-aligned Ukraine would permanently detach the country from Russian dominance and integrate it into the Western security framework.

What Would EU Membership Do for Ukraine?

In order to ensure that Russia does not simply try to conquer Ukraine again once it has rearmed and stabilized its economy, Zelenskyy is seeking a US guarantee that would be modeled on NATO’s Article 5—an attack on one is an attack on all. Such an arrangement would need to be backed by a vote in Congress.

President Donald Trump has opposed Ukraine joining NATO, as he has suggested it would trigger a war with Russia. The US president has also echoed the Kremlin line that Ukraine’s ambitions to join the international alliance were one of the causes of Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022. Restraint-minded officials on both the left and the right have argued that endless security guarantees or paper promises entangle the US in foreign conflicts without proportional benefits.

However, the Trump administration has suggested that EU membership could be offered to Ukraine instead. It should be noted that Washington has no real say in the matter; EU accession rules require negotiations followed by European Parliament consent and a unanimous approval by the Council, then ratification of an accession treaty by all member states. The United States is not a member of any of these bodies and cannot do anything to arrange an end-run around them.

If Ukraine were to join the EU, the argument goes, it could deter further Russian aggression and bring quicker transformation of the country’s economy, as access to the European market would catalyze foreign investment. It is still unclear if every EU member would agree to this plan, or whether Russia would be fully on board with it.

Regardless, it is unlikely that the plan will be adopted in the coming months. The war is almost certain to stretch into another winter, and will probably reach its fifth anniversary in February 2027.

About the Author: Peter Suciu

Peter Suciu regularly writes about military hardware, firearms history, cybersecurity, politics, and international affairs. He has contributed to dozens of newspapers, magazines, and websites over a 30-year career in journalism, including Forbes and Clearance Jobs. He is based in Michigan. You can follow him on Twitter: @PeterSuciu. You can email the author at Editor@nationalinterest.org.

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