Chevron and ConocoPhillips are pursuing different paths into Iraq’s oil sector, but the $60 billion in announced deals will mean little until contracts close and pipelines are built.

Baghdad’s efforts to strengthen economic and energy ties with Washington reflect concrete economic and strategic needs beyond political normalization. With approximately 145 billion barrels of proven oil reserves, Iraq holds around 9 percent of the world’s proven reserves and ranks among OPEC’s largest reserve holders. Yet the country depends on a limited number of export routes to bring its resources to global markets.

The US-Iraq Business Summit held in Washington in July 2026 was significant for Baghdad. During Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi’s visit, more than 50 agreements and memorandums of understanding (MOUs) were announced between US companies and the Iraqi government. The US Chamber of Commerce put the combined value at more than $60 billion. The package covered energy, infrastructure, technology, finance, and health care, with companies including Chevron, ConocoPhillips, BP, GE Vernova, Shell, and KBR. However, the $60 billion figure should not be treated as foreign direct investment (FDI). It includes partnerships and MOUs as well as binding agreements, and does not represent capital already transferred to Iraq or guaranteed to enter the country. Instead, it reflects the announced value of potential future projects. This distinction matters when assessing Iraq’s developing economic relationship with the United States.

So, what are US companies seeing in Iraq? Chevron’s interest in producing fields and alternative export infrastructure is particularly noteworthy.

Why the Kirkuk-Ceyhan Pipeline Still Matters for Iraqi Oil

Most Iraqi oil exports pass through the Persian Gulf, exposing the country to security conditions in the Strait of Hormuz. Historically, Iraq also had export connections through Turkey, Syria, and Saudi Arabia, linking its oil to the Mediterranean and Red Sea. The approximately 986-kilometer (about 613 miles) Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline is one of Iraq’s most important routes to the Mediterranean. After remaining out of service following attacks on the Iraqi side in 2014, it resumed operations in 2026. Initial flows were approximately 170,000 barrels per day (b/d), and exports through the northern system reached around 250,000 b/d by late September 2026. Kirkuk-Ceyhan is therefore not a lost route but an export corridor that has been brought back into operation and has yet to reach its design capacity. By contrast, the Kirkuk-Baniyas pipeline, which historically carried oil through Syria to the Mediterranean, and the Iraq Pipeline through Saudi Arabia (IPSA), which provided access to the Red Sea, are no longer serving the same function. Designed for approximately 700,000 b/d, Kirkuk-Baniyas has been out of service since 2003. The Iraqi section of IPSA, with a capacity of around 1.65 million b/d, is also inactive. Of the three western and northern routes Iraq historically had, Kirkuk-Ceyhan is now the principal alternative in operation.

This explains Baghdad’s efforts to attract investment in new export connections. The goal is not simply to sell more oil but to build a more resilient network that can transport increased production through different outlets. Plans for a new connection to Syria’s port of Baniyas and higher flows through Kirkuk-Ceyhan are part of this effort. US energy companies’ recent moves bring access to producing fields and alternative export infrastructure into the same commercial framework. Chevron’s negotiations over West Qurna 2 and ConocoPhillips’ plan to acquire a stake in fields around Kirkuk reflect different approaches.

Chevron’s West Qurna 2 Negotiations

One of Chevron’s most significant opportunities in Iraq is West Qurna 2, operated by Russia-based Lukoil. With production capacity of approximately 460,000 b/d, the field could give Chevron access to substantial existing output. In February 2026, the Iraqi government established a preliminary framework for Chevron to take over the field. This did not constitute a completed acquisition or transfer of operatorship. On September 13, Iraq’s Ministry of Oil signed an agreement with Chevron for technical advisory services to Basra Oil Company, allowing the company to participate more closely in negotiations over field development terms. Chevron’s assumption of operatorship remains contingent on a final contract.

The field’s scale alone will not determine the commercial outcome. Cost recovery, revenue sharing, and operational flexibility will also be crucial. Chevron must secure contractual terms that make the investment profitable over the long term. Its discussions with Iraq extend beyond West Qurna 2 to the Nasiriyah field, four exploration blocks in Dhi Qar province, and the Balad field. These projects suggest Chevron seeks a broader exploration and production portfolio rather than a return through a single asset.

ConocoPhillips’ Kirkuk Investment

ConocoPhillips is pursuing a different approach, focusing on redeveloping existing producing fields in northern Iraq. On July 17, the company announced an agreement with BP to acquire a 42 percent interest in BP Energy Company of Kirkuk Limited. The transaction covers development and production at the Baba and Avana domes of the Kirkuk field, as well as the Bai Hassan, Jambur, and Khabbaz fields. Their initial gross recoverable resources are estimated to exceed 3 billion barrels of oil equivalent.

The transaction is expected to close by the end of 2026, subject to necessary approvals and closing conditions. Rather than developing a new field from scratch, ConocoPhillips aims to increase returns from existing infrastructure. For BP, the deal offers an opportunity to restructure its portfolio and redirect capital. ConocoPhillips aims to expand its presence in northern Iraq and participate in long-term production growth in a key oil-producing region. The strategic difference is clear: Chevron is negotiating to take over a major producing field, while ConocoPhillips plans to participate in production growth through a minority stake in an existing development portfolio.

How Iraq’s Oil Deals Connect to New Export Corridors

Chevron’s involvement in potential export infrastructure gives its Iraqi activities a broader strategic dimension. The company has been linked to an initiative exploring pipeline options connecting southern Iraq, via Haditha, to Turkey’s port of Ceyhan and Syria’s port of Baniyas. On July 17, 2026, Iraq and Syria signed an MOU to rehabilitate and rebuild the Iraq-Syria oil pipeline. The US Department of State said a US-led international consortium would conduct the technical and financial work. Chevron, Qatar-based UCC, and TI Capital were reported to be among its members.

A transportation capacity of 2 million b/d has been cited as a target following rehabilitation. This is not the pipeline’s current capacity, but a target that depends on implementation. Alongside Chevron’s producing-field activities, the initiative highlights the company’s pursuit of major Iraqi oil assets and alternative routes to international markets. However, the oil-field agreements and pipeline project remain separate processes. Progress on one does not guarantee completion of the other.

Implementation will depend on financing, the infrastructure’s technical condition, agreements between Iraq and Syria, and security. Although a connection to Baniyas could offer strategic value, future transportation volumes and the timeline for bringing the route into operation remain uncertain.

What Will Determine the US Energy Presence in Iraq

Chevron and ConocoPhillips show that US companies are not returning to Iraq through a single investment model. Chevron is combining the possibility of taking over a major producing field with involvement in export infrastructure, while ConocoPhillips is seeking a stake in the redevelopment of existing fields. For Washington, this expansion could strengthen bilateral economic ties and increase US companies’ role in Iraq’s energy sector. Yet corporate decisions will depend less on political alignment than on contractual terms, investment costs, and the ability to transport production to markets.

The outcome of Chevron’s West Qurna 2 negotiations, the completion of ConocoPhillips’ Kirkuk transaction, and progress in financing and implementing alternative export corridors will show whether the announced agreements translate into commercial results. A lasting US corporate presence will depend on commercially viable outcomes. For Chevron, West Qurna 2’s contractual terms will be decisive; for ConocoPhillips, closing the Kirkuk transaction will be key. Export corridors will depend on financing and implementation. Until these stages are completed, the announced value of the agreements cannot be treated as actual capital inflows. Iraq’s central challenge is to turn political and commercial commitments into viable projects.

About the Author: Gökçe Nur Ataman

Gökçe Nur Ataman is an energy analyst and columnist specializing in natural gas, LNG markets, hydrogen economics, and US energy markets. She conducts academic research on the impact of hydrogen on industrial transformation, with a particular focus on Europe and Turkey. Her work analyzes global LNG trade dynamics, contract architecture, energy security, and geopolitical risk, particularly in relation to US LNG strategy, Henry Hub pricing structures, and transatlantic energy relations. Ataman’s research explores the intersection of energy markets and strategic policy, with a focus on supply security, long-term contracting models, and the evolving global energy order.

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