The game’s release on November 19 will probably coincide with a massive spike in absences from work, according to a Spanish economics professor.

On November 19, Rockstar Games will release its highly anticipated Grand Theft Auto VI, which promises to be the biggest video game of 2026, and quite possibly of the decade. It is expected to generate billions of dollars in sales, with more than 6 million copies already preordered. A standard edition will retail for $79.99, while an ultimate edition, which includes extra add-on content, will be available for $99.99.

The video game’s release could cost the US economy, too—possibly to the tune of more than $1 billion!

That might seem surprising, given that the game is in such demand. The global video game sector is one of the largest entertainment industries in the world, but one could argue it doesn’t support the broader economy. Local businesses near a sports or concert venue see regular spikes in business. Video games don’t provide any such benefit.

Even worse, businesses are already bracing for the “GTA VI flu,” where people call out sick to try out the game. That could translate to as much as a billion dollars in lost productivity, according to economics professor José García Montalvo at the Barcelona School of Economics, The International Business Times first reported. Montalvo estimated that upwards of 1.5 million workers could call out sick, significantly impacting the workforce.

When developer Rockstar Games released the last game in the series, Grand Theft Auto V, in 2013, as many as 6 percent of workers aged 18 to 35 in major US cities took the day off, according to the International Business Times.

“With Grand Theft Auto VI, Rockstar is building on the excitement already surrounding the game and creating even greater anticipation for the sequel. Grand Theft Auto V was one of Twitch’s most-streamed games in both 2024 and 2025, with well over 1 billion hours watched,” technology industry analyst Susan Schreiner of C4 Trends told The National Interest.

Schreiner suggested that this new video game could significantly impact productivity across the US economy, though she expressed skepticism about the $1 billion figure. 

The US Economy Regularly Sees Cultural Disruptions

Even so, the game’s impending release is certainly causing more excitement than the video game industry has seen in a long time. 

Given that November 19 is on a Thursday, it could also mean some workers may even seek a four-day weekend this year to get their game on. But will it really happen?

“The $1 billion figure makes a great headline, but it’s more cultural signal than economic reality. GTA VI launches a week before Thanksgiving, when many people are already burning use-it-or-lose-it vacation days, and hardcore gamers would be playing something that night anyway,” suggested Angelica Gianchandani, adjunct instructor of integrated marketing and communications at New York University.

And 2026 is a very different world from 2013.

“The real wild card is hybrid work: someone logged in from home with a controller in hand never shows up as absent, so any lost productivity will be invisible, not measurable,” Gianchandani told The National Interest.

A far more substantial disruption to the US economy already takes place every year like clockwork: the Super Bowl, which regularly takes place on a Sunday and sees employees absent or unproductive the following day. This year, analysts estimated that 26.2 million employees missed work after the game, roughly 5 million were late, and uncounted millions more showed up tired or hung over.

The total cost of the Super Bowl to the US economy at $5.2 billion this year, five times the GTA VI estimate, and nobody called that a crisis. It helped that many employees took the day off from allotted time.

“Smart employers will plan for GTA VI the same way: approving time off early, allowing shift swaps, and avoiding big deadlines that week,” Gianchandani added.

Video Games Are a Complicated Business Today

The bigger story, perhaps, is the rise that video games continue to see.

Two-thirds of Americans now play every week, and the average player is now 37 years old, according to the Entertainment Software Association (ESA). This gives gaming a mass appeal it has not previously held in American culture. As Gianchandani noted, “A game launch now carries the weight of a national cultural event, and it should be treated that way.”

Still, even as video games remain a huge business, there are worrying reports from within that the business model isn’t sustainable. GTA VI was announced in 2022, and it has faced repeated delays as software problems arise and are addressed, angering gamers.

The video game industry has continued to bet big on massive hits every couple of years, hoping that one title costing between $70 and $100 will be enough—especially as global households face financial strain. That explains why, despite record-setting revenues, major publishers and AAA studios have laid off thousands of workers in recent years.

“Rockstar has a lot at stake with the game, given its rumored production budget of more than $2 billion, so it has a strong incentive to explore every opportunity to monetize this sequel,” Schreiner said.

In the case of GTA VI, it is certain to be a hit, but not every game will be.

“GTA VI is bringing together a winning mix of factors that could set it up for success: it gives developers a compelling reason to get involved, builds on a dedicated user base, and opens up new opportunities with PC players,” Schreiner said. “While it may lead to some productivity losses, the potential for increased monetary rewards could help balance its overall impact on the economy.”

One Employer Is Prepared for the Loss: the US Army

As previously reported, one unit of the United States Army—specifically the 9th Brigade Engineer Battalion, 2nd Armored Brigade Combat Team at Fort Stewart, Georgia—isn’t worried that its personnel will be playing the game on November 19.

In fact, the unit’s commanders are counting on it!

A July 28-dated memo said the unit was offering a special four-day pass to current soldiers who signed a reenlistment contract between August 1 and November 14. Those who were worried about reenlisting and what it meant for their time to play GTA VI could receive a four-day pass. As of August, 20 of the 130 eligible soldiers signed up.

About the Author: Peter Suciu

Peter Suciu regularly writes about military hardware, firearms history, cybersecurity, politics, and international affairs. He has contributed to dozens of newspapers, magazines, and websites over a 30-year career in journalism, including Forbes and Clearance Jobs. He is based in Michigan. You can follow him on Twitter: @PeterSuciu. You can email the author at Editor@nationalinterest.org.

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