The Iran War has forced the Gulf states to build autonomy; that doesn’t mean they are turning away from the United States.

For decades, the Gulf states’ security depended on the threat that the United States would punish Iran or any other aggressor for any attack on them. That threat kept this year’s war from growing worse, but it didn’t stop Iran from firing missiles and drones at Abu Dhabi, Riyadh, Manama, and Doha. Once the fighting started, Iran had little to lose by disrupting shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. As a result, Gulf states are building their way out of Iran’s reach and reducing their reliance on any single outside power, including the United States. Washington should be able to help on commercial terms.

On October 11, Iran struck six merchant ships in the Strait of Hormuz. Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, says Iranian forces are targeting five or six vessels a night. However, the accelerated pace of Iranian strikes has failed to put a cork in the Gulf’s now-recovering oil flows.

The Gulf states have found other means to circumvent Iran’s threats. The UAE’s Habshan-Fujairah pipeline can move up to 1.8 million barrels of crude a day to the Gulf of Oman. A second pipeline will soon double the amount of oil Abu Dhabi can export from Fujairah without going through Hormuz. Saudi Arabia pumps crude across the country through its East-West Pipeline to Yanbu, on the Red Sea, and is preparing to expand it.

The United States often worries that if the Gulf states are less reliant on America, they will inevitably turn to China. Recent events suggest the risk stems more from a US withdrawal, not from the Gulf’s increased capabilities. In 2019, Iranian drones and cruise missiles struck the Saudi oil plant at Abqaiq, briefly knocking out 5.7 million barrels of production per day. The United States chose not to strike back at Iran, a point Saudi officials still raise. Four years later, Saudi Arabia restored relations with Iran through a deal that China arranged.

The UAE shows what can happen when the United States stays involved. In 2024, the Emirati AI company G42 sold its Chinese investments and removed its Huawei equipment to close a $1.5 billion deal with Microsoft.

Washington can help the Gulf states bolster their economic resilience without spending taxpayer money. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve holds only about 285 million barrels but has room for more than 720 million. The Energy Department should rent the empty space to Abu Dhabi National Oil Company and Saudi Aramco. Japan and South Korea already have similar deals with Gulf producers. Oil stored somewhere in Texas or Louisiana is obviously far out of range for Iran’s missiles. Americans would also have extra oil to draw on in an emergency.

The United States should also sell Gulf countries the equipment they need to keep critical infrastructure running during an attack, on the terms Microsoft set with G42. Gulf governments want to buy American grid controls, cyber defenses, and computing power. Washington should approve these sales on the condition that buyers remove Chinese equipment from power grids, undersea cables, and other key sites. The rule would cover only the systems Iran would likely hit first. Gulf countries could still trade with China in other areas.

Iran will pose a threat to the Gulf states no matter the precautions they take. Iran can still target oil facilities in Fujairah, and the Houthis are attacking Saudi-linked ships in the Gulf of Aden. Even after the new UAE pipeline opens, routes around Hormuz will carry only part of the oil that usually goes through the strait. The strait will likely stay Iran’s biggest source of leverage for years, but every pipeline that bypasses it makes that threat less useful.

For decades, the United States has paid to protect a region whose economy hangs on one narrow waterway. Helping Gulf countries depend less on it would better serve American interests, even if those governments end up calling Washington less often.

About the Author: Eric Alter

Eric Alter is dean of the Anwar Gargash Diplomatic Academy in Abu Dhabi, a professor of international law and diplomacy, and a member of the Council on Foreign Relations. A former UN civil servant and a senior consultant/team leader with various international organizations such as the WTO, the World Bank, IFC, UNDP, UNEP, and FAO. Professor Alter has been seconded abroad and has worked with embassies in an advisory capacity, in particular in Aden, Beirut, and Cairo. He received his PhD from Paris I Panthéon-Sorbonne.

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