The valuable part of the Air Force’s contract with WindBorne is not the balloons themselves, but the long-term atmospheric data they provide.

Even in the era of spy satellites and drones, seemingly “low-tech” balloons have a place in intelligence gathering. This week, the United States Air Force confirmed that it would pay an autonomous balloon startup for access to its data. Under a pay-as-you-go structured contract worth up to $49 billion, with a $1.7 million initial order, the US Air Force will have access to global atmospheric and weather data collected by WindBorne’s fleet of approximately 700 autonomous, altitude-steered weather balloons.

The company, which was founded in 2015 and is based in Redwood City, California, has established itself as a pioneer in directly feeding empirical data from a deep-learning weather model, TechCrunch reported this week. WindBorne already works with the US military, including the US Air Force and US Navy, as well as the National Weather Service, providing its weather-driven data.

Under the new contract, the Air Force will purchase weather data as needed.

“This is largely a vehicle through which continued growth of the constellation can be supported, as well as some work on research and development to continue to improve the hardware and performance of the balloons,” WindBorne co-founder and CTO Andrey Sushko told TechCrunch.

The contract from the US Air Force was awarded without a competitive bidding process, raising some eyebrows. However, sole-source awards are usually an indication that the government couldn’t find a competitor, as appears to be the case with atmospheric deep learning. Sushko acknowledged it was part of “a determination by the government that for this capability of collecting global data, we were the only company able to provide it in the way that met their needs for these operations.”

Windborne’s Balloons: A Mix of Low Tech and Cutting-Edge AI

Windborne Systems’ balloons lack any motors or engines, and instead navigate by adjusting their altitude, either by bleeding air or dropping ballast. The weather balloons can steer horizontally by changing their vertical altitude to catch wind currents blowing in different directions. However, as there is no lateral propulsion system such as a propeller or rudder, the balloons cannot steer left or right.

Still, by intentionally climbing or descending into a specific layer, a balloon can still travel toward a desired target.

WindBorne’s weather balloons are powered by an autonomous AI system that employs smart altitude control and proprietary software to steer themselves and target specific atmospheric data without active oversight from the ground.

Meteorology Is Getting an AI Update

The other component of artificial intelligence (AI) is how the technology is increasingly transforming weather forecasting by replacing or working alongside traditional physics-based supercomputers, delivering faster, cheaper, and often more accurate predictions.

Major weather data centers, including the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), have integrated AI models.

This past summer, WindBorne released the latest version of its WeatherMesh 6 forecasting model, which the company has said is more accurate than those of ECMWF.

“Meteorologists previously relied on expensive supercomputers running detailed equations that approximate how the atmosphere behaves. Now, end-to-end learning can ingest decades of weather data and issue predictions more quickly,” TechCrunch wrote.

AI is seen to be able to provide more accurate forecasts, but both models are still being used hand-in-hand. The WindBorne balloons were the first unpowered flight system to be deployed to the eye of a typhoon this past August.

AI has the potential to significantly improve hyper-local weather forecasting, analyze environmental data gaps, and guide strategic operations.

Project Swamp Gas Contract Awarded in September

Windborne is not the only company in the meteorological space to secure a lucrative military contract from the Air Force. Last month, Aerostar Technical Solutions was awarded a $64.4 million sole-source Air Force Life Cycle Management Center contract to build a minimum viable product (MVP) prototype for an urgent high-altitude balloon that can increase stratospheric surveillance capabilities for the US military.

It is part of the Air Force’s “Swamp Gas Project”—a tongue-in-cheek reference to a famous 1966 UFO incident, where the US government dismissed a series of unidentified flying object (UFO) sightings in Michigan as mistaken impressions of illuminated swamp gas. (“Weather balloons” are another famous explanation—or, depending on one’s frame of reference, excuse—for UFO activity.)

“This award is a major step in putting proven, mission-ready stratospheric capability into the hands of warfighters,” said Russ Van Der Werff, Vice President of Stratospheric Solutions at Aerostar. “We’re proud to partner with the Air Force to expand what high-altitude platforms can deliver for national security.”

Under the contract, Aerostar will deliver platform and payload systems for the high-altitude balloon systems. Although the exact mission parameters, payloads, and end-users remain undisclosed, work on the program will run through March 23, 2028, with operations based out of Arlington, Virginia, and Wright-Patterson Air Force Base.

About the Author: Peter Suciu

Peter Suciu has contributed to dozens of newspapers, magazines, and websites over a 30-year career in journalism. He regularly writes about military hardware, firearms history, cybersecurity, politics, and international affairs. Peter is also a contributing writer for Forbes and Clearance Jobs. He is based in Michigan. You can follow him on Twitter: @PeterSuciu. You can email the author at Editor@nationalinterest.org.

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