Vietnam is planning to upgrade its air force—and must choose between the Rafale, a known quantity, and Russia’s opaque Su-57 Felon.

In the spring of 2026, there were numerous reports that Vietnam, which remains a socialist one-party state led by a communist regime, would acquire the Russian-made Su-57 Felon fifth-generation stealth fighter. That didn’t come as a surprise, as the Southeast Asian nation has strong historical ties with Moscow and has bought arms, tanks, and even jet fighters on Russian credit, often using not-so-secret workarounds to avoid Western sanctions. Since the end of the Cold War, Russia has remained Vietnam’s largest arms supplier, accounting for more than 80 percent of its military imports.

However, in recent years, Hanoi has slowly sought to diversify its military hardware suppliers. That effort has included its acquisition of platforms from South Korea, Israel, and even the United States since the lifting of the American weapons embargo on Vietnam in 2016.

Moscow has offered 12 to 24 of its Sukhoi-made Su-57Es, the export variant of the stealth fighter, which Hanoi would use to significantly modernize its air force over the next decade. However, neither country has officially confirmed that the deal has been finalized. 

Vietnam is reportedly also looking at the French-made Dassault Rafale, and its aviators trained on the aircraft earlier this year.

Could Vietnam Really Buy the Su-57?

Vietnam’s military currently relies on older Soviet-era aircraft, including the Su-22 Fitter, Su-27 Flanker, and Su-30MK2 Flanker fighters. 

Hanoi has viewed China’s development of its J-16 Hidden Dragon and J-20 Mighty Dragon as a growing regional security challenge. Even as China and Vietnam maintain a close economic partnership and are fellow communist-led states, there are significant regional tensions between them, brought on by deep historical mistrust and territorial disputes. The Su-57 would provide Vietnam with a likely capable jet fighter to boost its aviation capabilities and deter Beijing.

Russia has avoided using the Su-57 in its war in Ukraine, preventing observers from gaining a clearer picture of its effectiveness, which is a complicating factor in a possible deal.

Why the Rafale Could Be a Better Option for Vietnam

The speculated delivery dates for the Su-57 are the early 2030s, which would leave Vietnam at a growing disadvantage for several years. Procuring a high-end fifth-generation aircraft would also require upgrades to Hanoi’s infrastructure. 

It is far from certain whether Moscow—which makes only a handful of the aircraft per year and has seen many non-essential military projects shelved to feed the demands of the battlefield in Ukraine—can deliver as promised. The United Aircraft Corporation (UAC), a subsidiary of Russia’s state-owned Rostec military-industrial conglomerate, has struggled to scale up production of the Su-57 due to technological bottlenecks, antiquated manufacturing infrastructure, and the impact of Western sanctions. Unlike modern Western defense contractors, Russian aerospace plants like KnAAZ (Gagarin Komsomolsk-on-Amur Aircraft Plant) mostly lack automated assembly lines, relying heavily on slower, manual manufacturing processes. Western sanctions have further complicated matters for the UAC. As a result, actual output remains limited to a small fraction of annual targets, with delivery numbers often counted in single digits.

Given the situation with the Su-57, Hanoi is now reported to be looking at the French-made Dassault Rafale. Though it is not a fifth-generation fighter, the Rafale could still serve well in an air superiority role to protect Vietnamese interests. More importantly, it could be a more affordable option than the Felon—and available far sooner.

Closing a deal with France for the Rafale would also be a sign of strong ties between Paris and Hanoi. The two nations upgraded their relationship to a “comprehensive strategic partnership” in late 2024, and further expanded their cooperation during Vietnamese president To Lam’s high-level visit to France this month. Vietnam is seeking to buy commercial airliners from France, along with an Earth observation satellite, while both nations agreed to cooperate on the mining of critical metals and other minerals.

On the flip side, the success of the aircraft could present challenges to Paris, especially as its aviation industry is still only recovering from devastating wildfires earlier this summer.

Dassault Aviation has already greatly expanded its global sales footprint across the Middle East, Asia, and Europe. Egypt, which was its first export customer for the Rafale, requested 24 additional fighters earlier this month, and India also signed a co-production deal last year. Vietnam could give it a further foothold in Southeast Asia. 

Given the nature of its international relations, it seems likely that Hanoi will close a deal for the Dassault Rafale, but may still leave the door open for the Russian Su-57 in the future. That could ensure that Vietnam begins to receive the French-made advanced 4.5+ generation fighters in the next few years, and could still be an operator of a stealth fighter by the middle of the 2030s.

About the Author: Peter Suciu

Peter Suciu has contributed to dozens of newspapers, magazines and websites over a 30-year career in journalism. He regularly writes about military hardware, firearms history, cybersecurity, politics, and international affairs. Peter is also a contributing writer for Forbes and Clearance Jobs. He is based in Michigan. You can follow him on Twitter: @PeterSuciu. You can email the author: Editor@nationalinterest.org.

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