A winter de-escalation would be a temporary measure to buy time for negotiators to achieve a broader peace agreement. But will Putin do it?

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said this week that it’s possible the Ukraine War could slow down this winter.

After meetings with Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, President Donald Trump’s envoys for peace missions, Zelensky revealed that the US is attempting to mediate a de-escalation of the war at least during the winter months.

Zelensky said in an interview with Axios that the weeks before winter offer a window for diplomacy to achieve a de-escalation or even a negotiated end to the conflict. A winter de-escalation would be a temporary measure to buy time for negotiators to achieve a broader peace agreement that would end the largest and deadliest conflict on European soil since the end of World War II.  

But it takes two to tango. And it is Russia that matters the most because of Moscow’s previous reluctance to enter in good faith negotiations with Ukraine and the US. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s demands—vast territorial concessions, Ukrainian disarmament, among other requests—have barred any meaningful discussions.  

“The territorial issue remains a relevant one. I think such complex issues can only be resolved at the level of leaders. But the main thing is that today we have the opportunity to discuss everything—security guarantees, Ukraine’s future, and the prosperity plan,” Zelensky said in additional comments to the press.  

Meanwhile, Ukraine is heavily counting on sustained military and economic support from the US, NATO, and the European Union to survive the weekend. Air defense weapon systems and interceptors are in high demand. 

“We are counting on support for air defense and the energy sector, as well as substantial volumes of American LNG [liquified natural gas] and the ability to use them,” Zelensky said.  

Putin is counting on the winter months to exact a heavy price from the Ukrainian people, the Ukrainian president said. At the same time, however, Zelensky noted that Putin does not wish to antagonize Trump ahead of the important 2026 US midterm elections. But here lies the trap: the Russian leader may very likely play for time and engage in talks without any true intentions to peacefully end the conflict. 

Plummeting  temperatures, ice, and walls of snow mean that mechanized operations during the winter months are not as easy as in the summer. To be sure, the battlefield is at its worst during the autumn rains and spring thaw. But winter does bring its challenges to the combatants and does not facilitate extensive offensive operations.  

In the past four years, operations along the contact line in that time of the year have slowed down with the combatants mainly relying on long-range fires and one-way attack unmanned aerial systems to wage their kinetic operations. Russia has repeatedly used the winter months to attack Ukraine’s urban centers and critical infrastructure. And yet, every winter, the Ukrainian people have withstood Russia’s blitz.  

About the Author: Stavros Atlamazoglou   

Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist specializing in special operations and a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ). He holds a BA from the Johns Hopkins University, an MA from the Johns Hopkins’ School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), and a JD from Boston College Law School. His work has been featured in Business Insider, Sandboxx, and SOFREP.

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