Jared Kushner’s recent meeting with Hamas in Cairo is a reminder that it isn’t Israel that is holding up the peace process.

The diplomatic activity of the past 48 hours exposed the limits of American, Israeli, and Muslim states’ power against one Islamist terrorist organization’s intransigence. Jared Kushner’s direct talks with the new Hamas chief Khalil al-Hayya in Cairo, his subsequent extended session with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Jerusalem, and the one-sided joint statement from eight Muslim-majority nations criticizing Israel’s rejection of President Donald Trump’s roadmap reflect the degree to which Hamas blocked any meaningful Gaza solution. The coastal enclave remains a central, unresolved variable in the region’s political architecture in large part because of the Islamist terrorist organization’s obstinacy and refusal to disarm.  

Two realities emerge from this activity: Hamas continues to function as the primary structural impediment to a durable settlement, and the Gaza file is now operationally linked to the broader US confrontation with Iran. 

Kushner, accompanied by Board of Peace Director-General Nickolay Mladenov and former British Prime Minister Tony Blair, met with a Hamas delegation in Cairo to discuss translating the Board of Peace’s 15-point roadmap into concrete, verifiable actions—including the transfer of governing responsibilities to the technocratic National Committee for the Administration of Gaza (NCAG) and the deployment of an International Stabilization Force (ISF). Kushner used the meeting to press Hamas for tangible steps on disarmament. Based on its experience with Hamas, Israel does not trust the group to follow through on its stated commitments. It will not withdraw until disarmament occurs and a trustworthy third party verifies it. 

Israel Cannot Withdraw from Gaza Before Hamas’ Disarmament

Following his meeting with Hamas, Kushner pressed Netanyahu to move forward with the Trump-backed Gaza ceasefire plan and not to “create obstacles,” during a meeting lasting more than four hours. In the run-up to the October 27 Israeli elections, which may define Netanyahu’s political legacy, he has taken particularly intransigent positions to boost his image as “Mr. Security.”  

On the multilateral front, the foreign ministers of Turkey, Egypt, Indonesia, Jordan, Pakistan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE characterized Israel’s rejection of the roadmap as “a direct repudiation” of Trump’s Comprehensive Plan, endorsed by UN Security Council Resolution 2803. They assessed that Israel now bears responsibility for obstructing peace efforts. The statement called for full and immediate implementation to address the humanitarian situation, rebuild Gaza, and achieve security and stability. 

The regional ministers’ statement reflects genuine frustration among US partners, but it also reflects their institutional interest in framing Israel—rather than Hamas—as the recalcitrant party. This only undermines peace prospects and lets the terrorist entity off the hook. 

Hamas’ rhetorical embrace of the roadmap deserves rigorous scrutiny. Hamas claimed it had “accepted” the roadmap while accusing Israel of failing to implement its ceasefire commitments and escalating military operations. This is straight out of the well-worn Hamas playbook: talk compliance to mediators while ensuring actual implementation never occurs. 

The demand that Israel withdraw before full disarmament is not diplomacy—it is a demand for strategic defeat of the Jewish state. Israel’s current position is that Hamas must fully disarm before any Israeli withdrawal will occur. This is the minimum condition for ensuring Gaza does not reconstitute itself as a terror launch pad.  

Every prior ceasefire agreement with Hamas has been exploited for rearmament and tunnel reconstruction. A “commitment to disarm” made to Kushner in Cairo is worthless without intrusive, real-time verification by the NCAG, the ISF, and international monitors with enforcement authority—none of which Hamas has accepted in practice. 

Hamas Wants Chaos in the Palestinian Authority—and Possibly New Leadership in Israel

The October-November electoral calendar adds significant urgency to this impasse. Israeli Knesset elections are set for October 27—the first since October 7, 2023, and the 2026 Iran War—at a moment of extraordinary polarization and international scrutiny. The Palestinian Authority is also scheduled to hold its first legislative elections in 20 years in November. 

Netanyahu’s Likud party responded to the regional powers’ joint statement by accusing Arab states of trying to “topple” Netanyahu so that centrist challengers Gadi Eisenkot and Naftali Bennett, and leftist leader Yair Golan “will give them everything they want.” This is partly electoral posturing, but it also reflects a structural reality: a post-Netanyahu government might accept a roadmap that preserves Hamas’s political skeleton while trading it for Israel’s international rehabilitation.  

Hamas is deliberately running out the clock. It understands this calendar precisely. For the Palestinian elections, Hamas’ exclusion is both legally mandated and politically consequential. Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas’ election law requires all candidates to sign a pledge accepting the Palestinian Liberation Organization’s “national program,” which at least formally includes recognizing Israel, the two-state solution, and renouncing terror.

While the PLO has violated the spirit of these conditions for some time—most prominently with the “Pay to Slay” program providing for the families of Palestinians killed or imprisoned while conducting terror attacks on Israelis—Hamas remains categorically committed to the destruction of the State of Israel, and its candidates have refused to sign the pledge outright. Hamas’ goal is therefore to discredit November’s Palestinian elections as illegitimate, consolidate its grip on Gaza, and emerge from the diplomatic process as an indispensable actor. 

The Gaza Crisis Has Made the Iran War Harder

The Gaza impasse cannot be severed from the unresolved war with Iran. Trump has reiterated that his top priority in the conflict with Iran is preventing the regime from obtaining a nuclear weapon. Resolving Gaza is instrumental to that goal. The unhealed Gaza wound inflames Arab public opinion, constrains Gulf state cooperation with Washington, and hands Tehran a propaganda lifeline. Saudi normalization with Israel—the strategic prize that would durably reshape the Middle Eastern security architecture—remains hostage to visible progress on the Palestinian front. 

Washington’s calculus is layered. A Gaza settlement frees US diplomatic capital and removes the primary argument Iranian proxies use to recruit regionally. For Israel, the priorities are clear: an absolute guarantee of Hamas’ disarmament before any withdrawal; preservation of the security buffer inside Gaza pending ISF deployment; and maintenance of the IDF’s freedom to act against terrorist threats. Neither Israel nor the US can accept a cosmetic deal that leaves Hamas’ command structure intact under a civilian facade.

The joint statement by the eight Islamic nations should not be allowed to obscure the core dynamic: Hamas has spent two decades perfecting the art of being indispensable enough to negotiate, yet durable enough to survive every deal and continue its bloody business to the detriment of the Palestinian Arabs. The Board of Peace roadmap is the most serious framework yet assembled—but its success depends on enforcement, not Hamas’ word. Kushner’s Cairo meeting may have been necessary diplomacy. Whether it was productive depends entirely on what happens when the cameras turn off. 

About the Author: Ariel Cohen

Dr. Ariel Cohen is a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center and a member of the Council on Foreign Relations. He is a recognized authority on international security and energy policy and a leading expert in Russia, Eurasia, and the Middle East. Dr. Cohen is also a managing director of the Energy, Growth, and Security Program (EGS) at the International Tax and Investment Center (ITIC).

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