The impact of the Strait of Hormuz closure has been lessened by a major Saudi pipeline running to the Red Sea—but Iran can shut down the Red Sea, too.

Recent attacks on two gas tankers at the Egyptian port of Damietta near the Suez Canal sparked a fire across both ships. They also ignited fresh security concerns in the Middle East—and highlighted that yet another vital waterway could be closed in the US-Iran war, which may be spiraling out of Washington’s control.

No one has yet taken responsibility for the attack on the port of Damietta, located on a branch of the Nile Delta. Still, it is a reminder of how easily crucial waterways around the world can be easily shut down by low-cost drones.

The Middle East’s Tricky Naval Geography

Since the start of Operation Epic Fury in February, Iran has largely shut down the crucial Strait of Hormuz, the narrow body of water that connects the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. The impact on global oil markets has been calamitous; before the war, roughly one-fifth of all oil traffic passed through the strait every day.

One saving grace in the conflict has been Saudi Arabia’s prescient construction of the East-West Pipeline, which now transports around 7 million barrels of oil per day from Saudi Arabia’s eastern oilfields to the port of Yanbu on the Red Sea. From the Red Sea, oil tankers can take the Saudi oil either north to Europe via the Suez Canal or south to Asia via the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

However, as the war has dragged on, Iran has signaled its desire to down additional oil supplies outside of Hormuz as a way of putting additional pressure on the United States and Europe. The Houthis, a militant group controlling northern Yemen and overlooking the Bab el-Mandeb, recently announced that they would blockade that narrow waterway to Saudi oil traffic, effectively cutting off Saudi oil supplies to Asia. And attacks on the Suez Canal would do the same for Europe, cutting off either end and effectively turning the Red Sea into a second Hormuz.

Even a Weak Power Can Easily Shut Down the Suez Canal

There were no confirmed deaths or even injuries from the drone strike this week, but the attack may have been a portent of the bad things to come. Two Iranians have already claimed that the vessels were targeted “to show that global shipping and energy supplies could be more deeply disrupted,” The New York Times reported.

Around 12 to 15 percent of global trade, and some 30 percent of worldwide container traffic, is estimated to flow through the Suez Canal, carrying more than $1 trillion in goods annually. Under normal conditions, an average of 50 to 60 ships pass through the waterway every day.

The canal has been shut down before. It was closed for five months in 1956–1957 during the Suez Crisis, between the years 1967 and 1974 during the Arab-Israeli wars, and most recently in 2021, when a Chinese container ship accidentally steered into one of its banks and blocked the waterway. That ship was dug out in less than a week, and traffic resumed without incident—an outcome that would be far less likely if a tanker were attacked and fully or partially sunk in the canal during transit.

The Suez Canal’s navigational channel is just 200 to 210 meters (656 to 689 feet), which leaves little room for error in the best of times. It was only a year and a half ago that the USS Harry S. Truman (CVN-75) collided with a merchant tanker at the mouth of the Suez Canal, a reminder that mistakes happen all too easily even in ideal conditions. Add in a drone attack and absolute chaos could ensue!

One stroke of good luck for the oil industry is that Egypt operates a pipeline, the Sumed Pipeline, between the port of Suez on the Red Sea side of the canal and the city of Alexandria on the Mediterranean. This pipeline would provide some relief to oil markets in the event of a canal closure—but it would be insufficient on its own to make up for the lost oil traffic, to say nothing of the other traffic traveling back and forth through Suez between Europe and Asia. And there is no reason Iran or one of its allied proxy groups could not simply attack the pipeline, too.

The Bottom Line: A Few Iranian Drones Can Hold the Global Economy Hostage

The United States Navy certainly paid attention to the threat to both the Suez Canal and the Bab el-Mandeb. That explains why the US Navy’s 10th and final Nimitz-class supercarrier, the USS George H.W. Bush (CVN-77), took the long route around Africa to reach the Middle East this past spring, avoiding the two narrow chokepoints altogether.

It hasn’t just been the US Navy that has sought to avoid the risk from missiles and drones in the Red Sea and Suez Canal. Significantly more commercial ships are taking the longer route around Africa, which adds roughly 3,000 to 3,500 nautical miles and an extra 10 to 14 days of travel time to typical Asia-Europe or Asia to US East Coast voyages.

It should be added that the potential for drones to wreak such havoc has been clear for years. Ukraine has employed naval and aerial drones against Russia’s so-called “shadow fleet” tankers and other vessels, causing critical structural damage and setting major fires that effectively put the ships out of service.

Ukraine has also launched drone strikes at targets deep into Russia, so Tehran may understand that it can’t just shut down the Strait of Hormuz; it could close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the Suez Canal, and even other chokepoints such as the Strait of Malacca.

Drones continue to be a force multiplier in asymmetric warfare, and it will be up to the United States and its allies to determine how to best counter that threat.

About the Author: Peter Suciu

Peter Suciu has contributed to dozens of newspapers, magazines and websites over a 30-year career in journalism. He regularly writes about military hardware, firearms history, cybersecurity, politics, and international affairs. Peter is also a contributing writer for Forbes and Clearance Jobs. He is based in Michigan. You can follow him on Twitter: @PeterSuciu. You can email the author: Editor@nationalinterest.org.

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