Wreckage of a downed Kh-101 missile seen in Ukraine’s western Vinnytsia Oblast in 2023. Polish officials claimed this week that a similar missile struck eastern Poland, although no one was hurt. (Armed Forces of Ukraine)
NATO Leaders Blame Russia After Errant Missile Strikes Eastern Poland
Russian ordnance has entered eastern NATO nations in the past, but has usually been safely shot down in the air.
In the early hours of Thursday morning, a missile that is believed to be Russian in origin struck Polish territory during an overnight assault on Ukraine. The missile left a 10 meter-wide (33 ft) crater in the ground in the southeastern part of the country, a short distance from the village of Tarnawa Kolonia, 92 kilometers (57 miles) from Poland’s eastern border with Ukraine. No one was injured in the strike.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk claimed that all indications were that the projectile in question was a Russian-made Kh-101 cruise missile that likely veered off course as the Kremlin launched an aerial attack on cities in western Ukraine.
Tusk claimed that Polish air defenses had detected a second missile crossing into Polish airspace, but that projectile had turned away before striking the ground.
Although there were no casualties and the first missile appears to have done no damage to any Polish buildings or infrastructure, Warsaw is still taking the incident very seriously, as is NATO.
“We stand in solidarity with Poland and will continue to strengthen our readiness to defend against any threat, including missile attacks,” NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte wrote in a post on X (formerly Twitter). “This incident is yet another reckless act by Russia and a dangerous consequence of its war against Ukraine. I condemn last night’s deadly strikes across Ukraine. NATO continues to provide essential support so Ukraine can defend itself. Our commitment is unwavering.”
Russia has yet to comment on the incident.
Russia Keeps Accidentally (?) Entering Eastern NATO Countries
The incursion into Poland also follows three reported breaches of Romanian airspace just days earlier. The first occurred on July 24, when a Romanian F-16 Fighting Falcon was forced to shoot down a Russian drone that crossed into an uninhabited area near the Ukrainian border.
“The drone was promptly identified, and after crossing into Romanian airspace, the NATO assets were cleared to engage. Quickly after, the threat was shot down in Romanian airspace. This multinational combined effort underlines how NATO is ready and able to react to any potential air threats, 24/7, to safeguard our territory and protect our people,” NATO announced after the incident.
The shootdown marked the first time that a Romanian fighter jet scored a kill against a drone.
That incident was quickly followed on the overnight hours of July 25-26, when additional unmanned aerial systems (UAS) believed to be Russian in origin crossed into Romania, prompting the scrambling of Romanian F-16s and Italian Eurofighter Typhoons that were under NATO command. In the second sortie, several drones were reportedly shot down.
Then on July 27, a Russian drone briefly entered Romanian airspace before returning to Ukraine.
Following the incursions, the Romanian Ministry of Foreign Affairs summoned the Russian ambassador, presented recovered drone fragments proving its Russian origin, and expelled a member of the Russian diplomatic mission.
This latest series of Russian drone incursions and the missile that apparently went off course come just 11 months after Russian manned fighters violated Estonian airspace, leading to an emergency scrambling of NATO fighter jets. It was also last summer that Russian drones flew into Polish airspace, leading NATO to shoot them down—the first kinetic action by NATO troops against Russia since the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
Other drones have previously flown into Romanian airspace, but the Kremlin has denied they were Russian, claiming instead that they were Ukrainian in origin. Without physical evidence of the kind the Romanians recovered after the most recent incidents, it is difficult to know for certain.
Russian airspace incursions aren’t limited to Eastern Europe or the Baltics. Russian military aircraft continue to fly missions within international airspace, as do NATO countries. Russian bombers also regularly cross into America’s “air defense identification zone” (ADIZ), leading American fighter jets to intercept them.
The frequency of those incursions has reduced this year, with the most recent flight only being conducted in the middle of February. That could be an indicator that the Russian Aerospace Forces lack the aircraft to conduct such missions, particularly after several bombers were destroyed on the ground in an audacious Ukrainian drone attack last year.
What Will Happen if Russia Kills Someone in NATO?
Although there have been few serious mishaps so far, Russia is clearly playing a very dangerous game through its repeated incursions into NATO territory. If a Russian drone or missile were to kill or seriously injure civilians on the ground, it could be grounds for that member of NATO to invoke Article 5, the mutual defense clause of the alliance.
Though full-on war between NATO and Russia is unlikely, NATO would likely respond with further retaliation. It might increase weapons supplies to Ukraine, loosen restrictions on their use, or pursue other measures that would result in greater Russian casualties on the battlefield or economic pain for the Kremlin.
There is already speculation that NATO could increase its military presence along its eastern flank, which in turn would leave less room to maneuver if there is any further misunderstanding.
Moscow may think it is testing NATO’s resolve, but it might be the one that pays the ultimate price should anything go seriously wrong.
About the Author: Peter Suciu
Peter Suciu has contributed to dozens of newspapers, magazines and websites over a 30-year career in journalism. He regularly writes about military hardware, firearms history, cybersecurity, politics, and international affairs. Peter is also a contributing writer for Forbes and Clearance Jobs. He is based in Michigan. You can follow him on Twitter: @PeterSuciu. You can email the author: Editor@nationalinterest.org.
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