Canada is set to secure “observer” status in the GCAP program this week—giving Canadian companies limited access to program data and the ability to compete for small contracts.

The Anglo-Italian-Japanese Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP) joint sixth-generation fighter program is expected to gain a new observer member, making the effort even more “international” in nature. Canada recently reached an agreement to join the alliance, and Defence Minister David McGuinty is now scheduled to formalize the deal during his visit to the United Kingdom this week.

British Defence Secretary Dan Jarvis will host his Japanese and Italian counterparts, Shinjirō Koizumi and Guido Crosetto, along with McGuinty, with the GCAP taking center stage in the meeting. An official announcement could be made at the upcoming Farnborough International Airshow, one of the largest aerospace industry and trade events.

Current plans for the GCAP call for a next-generation manned fighter to enter service by the mid-2030s, replacing the legacy Eurofighter Typhoon operated by the UK and Italy as well as the Japanese Self-Defense Force’s (JSDF’s) F-2 Viper Zero. The GCAP is eventually slated to succeed the US-made F-35 Lightning II, which is operated by all three nations.

The GCAP Program Has Benefited from the FCAS’ Flare-Out

The UK, Italy and Japan launched the GCAP partnership in 2022, with its merging efforts underway in both the UK and Japan, including the British “Tempest” fighter program. The UK’s BAE Systems, Japan’s Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, and Italy’s Leonardo are leading the efforts.

Canada is the first country to join the program as an observer, but Germany and Saudi Arabia have also been identified as potential future partners. Tokyo remains cautious about expanding the GCAP, warning that it could delay the timeline. Japan may also be concerned that its influence could be diluted. On the flip side, the program’s soaring financial costs—and Japan’s expenses pushing for rearmament in other military sectors, notably in its navy—make added partners much more attractive.

Germany’s interest comes as it saw its joint partnership sixth-generation fighter program with Spain and France—the Future Combat Air System (FCAS)—crash and burn last month. If Berlin were to join the GCAP, it would find itself on familiar ground, as it had previously partnered with the UK and Italy (as West Germany) in the development of the Eurofighter Typhoon.

If it were to join the program, Canada’s role wouldn’t be that significant, at least not initially. It would remain an observer, meaning that it would have some access to program data and Canadian aerospace and testing firms could be involved in minor development areas without a financial or full developmental commitment. 

Hostility from America Is Killing Canada’s F-35 Ambitions

NATO member Canada is now reviewing whether it will conclude a deal years in the making to purchase 88 F-35s from the United States. The escalating trade and diplomatic tensions with Washington, and notably President Donald Trump’s repeated calls to make Canada the 51st state, have soured interest in the fighter. Rising costs have been another factor, as has a greater push to diversify its defense and industrial partnerships.

Ottawa continues to reevaluate its over-reliance on the United States military hardware, and there has been speculation that it could adopt a split fleet, consisting of the F-35 Lightning II along with the Swedish-made Saab JAS-39 Gripen multirole fighter.

By joining the GCAP, Canada could jumpstart its domestic defense industrial base (DIB).

“Canada for too long has allowed its defence industry and its strategic approach to defence material, defence requirements to atrophy,” retired Lieutenant-General Christopher Coates, a former top NORAD commander, told CBC, Canada’s public broadcaster. “It’s a good move to anticipate where we need to be in the future so that we’re not playing catch-up.”

About the Author: Peter Suciu

Peter Suciu has contributed to dozens of newspapers, magazines and websites over a 30-year career in journalism. He regularly writes about military hardware, firearms history, cybersecurity, politics, and international affairs. Peter is also a contributing writer for Forbes and Clearance Jobs. He is based in Michigan. You can follow him on Twitter: @PeterSuciu. You can email the author: Editor@nationalinterest.org.

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