China has a crucial advantage in a matchup with the US Navy: it is fighting on its home turf, while the Americans are thousands of miles from home.

The world’s next great naval conflict—if it ever occurs—will probably take place in the Indo-Pacific, between the United States and its allies on one side and China on the other. Both Washington and Beijing are hard at work planning for this conflict, and contemplating the ways each can gain an advantage over the other.

To be clear, any military conflict between the United States and China would be calamitous. Both sides possess nuclear weapons, raising the risk of nuclear annihilation. Even if nuclear weapons were not used, the US and China have two of the largest militaries on the planet, and a war between them would certainly result in tens of thousands, if not hundreds of thousands or even millions, of deaths. This is an outcome that should be avoided at all costs. Yet if it does occur, it will probably start over a Chinese attempt to take Taiwan—or potentially over a provocation in the South China Sea, where China’s expansive territorial claims have put it in contention with its neighbors.

A US-China war would likely bear little resemblance to the great naval battles of World War II. Rather than fleets exchanging gunfire at visual range, analysts generally expect a conflict dominated by long-range missiles, submarines, cyberattacks, satellites, drones, and electronic warfare. While the exact course of any war would be impossible to predict, military planners have spent years studying how such a conflict might unfold and where each side’s strengths and vulnerabilities lie.

What Would a US-China Naval War Look Like?

China holds a clear geographic advantage over the United States: it is fighting essentially on its home turf, while the contiguous United States is many thousands of miles away. Taiwan, the most likely focus of a future conflict, sits only around 100 miles off the Chinese coast—meaning Chinese aircraft, missiles, and naval forces would have the luxury of operating close to their bases on the mainland. US forces, meanwhile, would be forced to project power from Hawaii, Guam, and Japan. Much of the early fighting would likely occur inside the so-called First Island Chain, where China has invested heavily in anti-access capabilities. 

The conflict would certainly begin with cyberattacks and kinetic missile strikes. Most analysts expect the opening hours would begin long before ships engage each other. Potential early actions could include attacks on communications infrastructure, attempts to disrupt satellites, and interference with America’s GPS system. At the onset, China would also likely attempt large-scale missile strikes on air bases, ports, logistics hubs, command centers, and fuel depots—all in an effort to reduce America’s ability to reinforce the region quickly. Conversely, the United States would attempt to degrade Chinese infrastructure as well; the outcome of the start of the conflict could depend on which side struck first, and whether they were able to take the other by surprise.

Sooner or later, the United States would also need to address China’s sophisticated Anti-Access/Area Denial (A2/AD) network, which attempts to hold enemy forces at distance. China has spent years building up that network, and now has long-range anti-ship ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, submarines, coastal missile batteries, integrated air defenses, and aircraft. To respond to this threat, the US Navy might disperse its forces across the Indo-Pacific, a concept known as Distributed Maritime Operations (DMO). DMO concepts include spreading ships over wider areas, networked operations, decentralized command, and multiple firing nodes. This reduces the risk that a single missile salvo could disable an entire carrier strike group.

Many naval analysts believe that submarines could become one of America’s greatest advantages in a conflict with China. US attack submarines remain among the world’s quietest and most capable. Potential missions include intelligence collection, anti-ship warfare, land attack, disrupting invasion fleets, and sea denial. Crucially, because submarines are significantly harder to detect than surface ships, the undersea domain could become one of the conflict’s most consequential battlegrounds.

Aircraft carriers, too, would remain valuable—but they would likely operate differently than during previous wars. Rather than sailing close to hostile coastlines, they may launch aircraft from greater distances while relying heavily upon escorts, submarines, and long-range aviation. Carrier survivability would depend upon the broader joint force.

A Long-Term War Would Favor China in Some Ways

Eventually, the war would become an industrial contest. Here, China holds a decisive edge. High-intensity naval combat consumes enormous quantities of missile interceptors, fuel, and replacement parts—as the recent Operation Epic Fury against Iran demonstrated to America’s detriment. Both sides would face pressure to sustain production, but the size of China’s civilian industrial base would give it an edge over the United States. Indeed, the ability to manufacture replacement missiles, ships, and drones would likely prove as important as early head-to-head engagements.

So who would win? It is impossible to say for certain, and the world must hope it never finds out. While no one can predict exactly how a US-China naval war would unfold, most analysts agree it would be unlike any previous maritime conflict. And ultimately, success would depend, not just on battlefield performance, but on each country’s ability to sustain operations. One can only hope that as both sides study and size up the other, they realize that, as in WarGames, the only winning move is not to play.

About the Author: Harrison Kass

Harrison Kass is a writer and attorney focused on national security, technology, and political culture. His work has appeared in Tablet, City Journal, The Hill, The Spectator, and The Cipher Brief. He holds a JD from the University of Oregon and a master’s in Global & Joint Program Studies from NYU. More at harrisonkass.com.

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