China is on track to build as many as 400 J-20 fighter jets per year by 2027—double Lockheed Martin’s current output of the F-35.

As of July 2026, Lockheed Martin has built more than 1,300 F-35 Lightning IIs, making it the most successful fifth-generation stealth fighter to date. In January, the aerospace and defense giant announced that it had delivered 191 F-35s in all variants during calendar year 2025, setting a record for the program. The previous delivery record was 142 aircraft in 2021.

Lockheed Martin also announced that its annual F-35 production was at a pace five times greater than any other allied combat fighter program.

The keyword from the firm may have been “allied,” however—as another fifth-generation fighter could be closing the gap with the F-35 at an alarming rate.

China’s J-20 Mighty Dragon is now the world’s second-most produced fifth-generation aircraft. The Chengdu Aircraft Corporation, the J-20’s manufacturer, has built around 500 units of the fighter jet since its introduction in 2017; there are already more J-20s than American F-22 Raptors (187 units) or Russian Su-57 Felons (~45 units). At current production and acquisition levels, China is expected to have more J-20s in its inventory than the US armed forces have F-35s by 2030.

How Many F-35s Has Lockheed Martin Produced?

The F-35 is far and away the world’s most common fifth-generation fighter jet.

Lockheed Martin, the F-35’s prime contractor, has produced around 1,340 F-35 aircraft for the US military and its allies around the world—chiefly NATO nations in Europe, but also Israel in the Middle East and Japan, South Korea, Australia, and Singapore in the Indo-Pacific. Production time for each aircraft is estimated at around 18 months; most production takes place at Lockheed Martin’s central plant in Fort Worth, Texas, but additional work is completed in Italy and Japan on regional variants.

How Many F-35s Does the US Operate?

The US Air Force has approximately 500 F-35As, the conventional takeoff and landing variant of the Joint Strike Fighter, in service. The United States Navy currently has around 110 F-35C models, the specially reinforced model employed from its aircraft carriers. And the United States Marine Corps operates between 235 and 255 F-35s, split between the F-35B, the short takeoff and vertical landing (STOVL) variant, and the F-35C.

This gives the armed services a total of around 850 F-35s of all variants. Crucially, however, only about a quarter of the existing fleet is combat-ready at any given time, with repeated government reports expressing concerns over the plane’s intensive maintenance needs and the lack of easy access to spare parts.

The Pentagon plans to purchase upwards of 2,456 F-35s by the mid-2040s, as it retires legacy aircraft including the F-16 Fighting Falcon and A-10 Thunderbolt II (“Warthog”). This would see the Air Force operate 1,763 F-35As, the US Navy maintaining a fleet of around 340 F-35Cs, and the USMC flying another 353 F-35B/C models.

An additional 600 Lightning IIs—either the F-35A or F-35B models—could be operated by international partners and allies, with the total fleet exceeding 3,000 aircraft.

How Many J-20s Has Chengdu Aircraft Corporation Produced?

The Chengdu Aircraft Corporation is a subsidiary of the Aviation Industry Corporation of China, an aerospace giant and one of the largest aerospace companies in the world by volume. Other AVIC subsidiaries include Shenyang, the manufacturer of the competing J-35 Cloud Dragon, and Xi’an, which manufactures Chinese bombers and transport aircraft including the H-6 and the upcoming H-20.

Military manufacturing data in China is a closely-guarded secret, but since the J-20’s introduction in 2017, Chengdu is thought to have built around 500 of the planes for the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF). Its current production rate is estimated at 100 to 120 aircraft per year. However, there is evidence that Beijing is quietly establishing additional production lines and ramping up production, with a goal of making 400 of the aircraft per year by 2027—at least doubling Lockheed Martin’s current production rate for the F-35.

The PLAAF has another advantage over the US armed forces: Beijing has no plans to export the J-20 to any foreign customers. Unlike the United States and Russia, China hasn’t sought to subsidize its military buildup via arms exports, at least not its most advanced combat aircraft. Instead, those assets are kept away from prying foreign eyes in order to preserve proprietary Chinese stealth technology, sensor coatings, and other capabilities, ensuring that they can’t be reverse-engineered or countered by potential adversaries.

How Many J-20s Does China Operate?

China currently operates at least 500 J-20s. All aircraft are in service with the PLAAF, as the J-20 is too large for carrier operations; the competing J-35 is designed for carrier capability instead. Though the J-20’s readiness rate is kept secret, it is assumed to be higher than the F-35’s.

The PLAAF is projected to have a fleet of at least 1,000 J-20s in service by 2030. If the estimated production rates are accurate, Beijing could build another 4,800 of the fifth-generation fighters in the 2030s—nearly double the expected F-35 strength of the United States. Of course, by this time, the world will be in the sixth generation of aircraft, including the US-made F-47 and the European-Japanese GCAP program; therefore, raw numbers of fifth-generation fighters will no longer be the be-all and end-all of aerial strength.

F-35 Lightning II vs. J-20 Mighty Dragon: A Head-to-Head Comparison

Aircraft	F-35 Lightning II (USA)	J-20 Mighty Dragon (China)
Year Introduced	2015 (B), 2016 (A), 2019 (C)	2017
Number Built to Date	~1,300 (all variants)	~500
Number Expected in Service Circa 2040	~2,450	~4,800
Length	51 ft 4 in (15.7 m)	69 ft 7 in (21.2 m)
Wingspan	35 ft (10.7 m)	42 ft 9 in (13 m)
Weight (MTOW)	70,000 lb (31,800 kg)	~80,000 lb (36,000 kg)
Engines	One Pratt & Whitney F135-PW-100 afterburning turbofan (43,000 lbf thrust with afterburner)	Two Shenyang WS-10C afterburning turbofans (27,000 lbf thrust each); future variants expected with WS-15 (~35,000 lbf)
Top Speed	1,200 mph (1,930 km/h) / Mach 1.6	1,320 mph (2,130 km/h) / Mach 2.0
Range	~670 mi (1,060 km) combat radius	~800 mi (1,300 km) combat radius
Service Ceiling	50,000 ft (15,240 m)	~66,000 ft (20,000 m)
Loadout	One GAU-22/A 25mm rotary cannon; internal weapons bays + external hardpoints; 18,000 lb (8,160 kg) payload capacity	Internal bays for long-range PL-15 and short-range PL-10 missiles; external hardpoints; 24,000 lb (11,000 kg) payload capacity
Aircrew	1	1

A US-China Air Battle Would Be a Numbers Game

The F-35 is seen to have a high survivability and kill ratio, one that approaches 15:1 and even 20:1 in some wargames. In a localized or short-term conflict, the US and its allies could dominate the skies and survive losses.

The picture becomes less clear in a protracted, high-intensity war of attrition with a near-peer adversary like China. American defense planners worry that China could engage the United States with an even greater number of equally capable aircraft, reducing the survivability/kill ratio considerably.

In such a scenario, the US would lose a war of attrition. And given that China is outpacing the production of the best US fighter, this should be seen as a very real concern.

About the Author: Peter Suciu

Peter Suciu has contributed to dozens of newspapers, magazines and websites over a 30-year career in journalism. He regularly writes about military hardware, firearms history, cybersecurity, politics, and international affairs. Peter is also a contributing writer for Forbes and Clearance Jobs. He is based in Michigan. You can follow him on Twitter: @PeterSuciu. You can email the author: Editor@nationalinterest.org.

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