This debate examines whether OPEC still shapes global oil markets or whether shifting geopolitics and production trends have overtaken its influence.

For decades, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has sought to shape global oil markets through coordinated production policies. But the rise of new producers, shifting patterns of energy demand, and changing geopolitical priorities have raised questions about whether the cartel still wields the influence it once did. This debate explores whether OPEC is still a decisive force in global energy or if its relevance has faded.

For the Pro side of This Debate, Go Here!

The pro side examines the United Arab Emirates’ (UAE) decision to leave OPEC as a case study in the organization’s changing role. Rather than viewing the UAE’s exit as an isolated political event, it reflects a broader shift among major producers that increasingly prioritize production flexibility and national economic interests over collective supply discipline. This raises important questions about OPEC’s future cohesion and influence.

The Con side of This Debate, Go Here!

The con side argues that structural changes have weakened OPEC’s ability to influence global oil markets. The piece contends that financial speculation, expanding non-OPEC supply, and increasingly volatile demand have diminished the effectiveness of production quotas. This has left the organization far less capable of steering prices than it was in previous decades. Rather than acting as the dominant force it once was, OPEC has become just one of the many variables shaping an increasingly complex and globally interconnected energy market.

About the Authors: Tatiana Mitrova and Ellen R. Wald

Dr. Tatiana Mitrova is a global fellow at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy and director of the New Energy Advancement Hub. Her work focuses on how large energy and industrial systems adapt under geopolitical, regulatory, and technological stress, with emphasis on resilience, structural constraints, and the evolving balance between petrostates and electrostates. With nearly three decades of experience, she advises governments, international institutions, and energy company boards on strategy, risk, and governance.

Ellen R. Wald, PhD, is the president and founder of Transversal Consulting, a boutique energy consulting firm, and co-founder of Washington Ivy Advisors. She is also a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Global Energy Center. Prior to founding her consulting firm, Ellen held academic appointments at the University of Georgia, the University of Wyoming, Boston University, and the University of Cambridge. She has lectured on energy and geopolitics across the United States, the United Kingdom, and the Middle East. She is the author of Saudi, Inc.: The Arabian Kingdom’s Pursuit of Profit and Power.

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