This week, Vice President JD Vance claimed that the Pentagon was “reviewing” a sale of the F-35 to Turkey, even as US law clearly forbids it under current conditions.

Six years ago next month, NATO member Turkey was famously expelled from the F-35 Lightning II program for adopting the Russian-made S-400 Triumf air defense system. Washington and NATO officials made clear to Ankara that the two platforms were not compatible and Turkey’s use of the Russian anti-aircraft system would compromise the security of the fifth-generation stealth fighter. As a result of the S-400 acquisition, Turkey also faced harsh sanctions under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA). Lifting those sanctions has been another top priority for the Turkish government, one that goes well beyond the F-35.

In the years since its expulsion, Ankara has attempted to find a way back into the program. It has found an unlikely ally in the administration of President Donald Trump, who was in office during Turkey’s first expulsion in 2019.

Trump administration officials have since hinted that they were amenable to an F-35 sale to Ankara, even over the objection of national security officials who have noted that Turkey still possesses its S-400s and operating both could give the Russian government key information on the fifth-gen stealth fighter jet.

This week, Vice President JD Vance suggested that a review of a sale to Turkey was underway, adding that Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth would also be involved in the process.

“Pete and the entire team are reviewing this right now, ‌because ⁠there are certain things that we have to certify have happened … in ⁠order to comply with American law. The president has ⁠asked us to do that,” Vance ⁠told reporters.

The original 2007 Joint Memorandum of Understanding (MoU), which allowed Turkey to buy and co-develop the F-35, was abruptly canceled in July 2019. At the time, the Turkish aerospace industry was contributing to the production of the Lightning II, including through the manufacture of engine parts and even airframes. The contracts and production lines were subsequently transitioned to other allied nations by early 2020.

The training of Turkish pilots and maintainers at Luke and Eglin Air Force Bases (AFBs) in the United States was also abruptly terminated, and the F-35s built for Turkey were withheld. In the years since, Turkey has not activated its S-400s, implying it might give them up in exchange for F-35s, but has steadfastly refused to get rid of them altogether.

Does Trump Have a Soft Spot for Turkish President Erdogan?

Given that the rationale for Turkey’s expulsion is clear, and even took place during Trump’s first administration, it would seem the case is closed, and that Ankara won’t find a way back into the F-35 program until the S-400 issue is resolved. However, there may be more at play.

Trump has shown an affinity for authoritarian strongmen, praising his strong personal relationships with Russia’s Vladimir Putin, North Korea’s Kim Jong-un, and Hungary’s recently ousted Viktor Orban. The president has also praised Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and he is now reportedly pushing for Turkey to obtain engines produced by General Electric for its domestically-built KAAN fighter jet.

On Wednesday, Trump was pressed on whether he would approve the sale of the engines to Turkey, and the NATO member’s chances of rejoining the F-35 program.

“I’m going to probably do something that will make them very happy,” the president told reporters, without elaborating.

Such a deal could be a stepping stone towards Turkey’s adoption of the F-35.

“Acquiring the engines is certainly important for Turkey, but it is also the lowest-hanging fruit for a US administration that has made far more ambitious promises to Ankara, including Turkey’s return to the F-35 program,” Gonul Tol, director of the Washington-based Middle East Institute’s Turkish program, told The Jerusalem Post.

“The real test of whether Washington and Ankara can open a new chapter in bilateral relations lies there,” Tol said.

Washington and Ankara were unable to resolve the F-35 issue during the Biden administration. However, tensions between the two capitals did ease somewhat after Biden’s State Department approved the sale of additional F-16 Fighting Falcons to Turkey, along with modernization kits for the country’s existing fleet.

Could the F-35 Be a Reward for Turkish Inaction During the Iran War?

This week, Trump also claimed that he had personally intervened to keep Turkey out of the Iran war, even as he and his allies pressed other NATO member states to join the conflict. Without evidence or any previous indications from Ankara, Trump suggested that Erdoğan might have joined the war on the side of Iran, as the Turkish strongman is well-known for disliking Israel.

“He was a prime candidate to go into the war with Iran—maybe on the Iran side, because he’s not a big fan of Israel,” Trump said. “I asked him to stay out. He stayed out. … Erdogan is a great leader, a very strong person..”

If this is really true, is Trump considering rewarding Erdogan for his non-participation in the conflict—which, after all, would have meant going to war with the United States and possibly the rest of NATO—with the GE engines and perhaps reentry into the F-35 program? It seems unlikely, but stranger things have been proposed by this administration.

About the Author: Peter Suciu

Peter Suciu has contributed to dozens of newspapers, magazines and websites over a 30-year career in journalism. He regularly writes about military hardware, firearms history, cybersecurity, politics, and international affairs. Peter is also a contributing writer for Forbes and Clearance Jobs. He is based in Michigan. You can follow him on Twitter: @PeterSuciu. You can email the author: Editor@nationalinterest.org.

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